Mixed Planting Intentions
Increased acreages of specific crops will vary by region.
US growers are heading into a very uncertain planting season impacted by both global weather extremities and geo-political turmoil in Ukraine. Crop data firm Gro Intelligence is using increasingly sophisticated AI models to predict planting intentions and future yields. Highlights from their prediction report released last week ahead of USDA’s report due in April:
Droughts in South America brought on by La Nina will have negative affect on corn and soybean supply. Brazil is likely to be well short of the 81.7 million metric tons of soybeans it exported last year.
The Ukraine conflict will also limit grain availability moving forward. Ukrainian ports are now closed indefinitely and Ukraine exports 80% of its corn production and 70% of its wheat production. It also contributes 17% to global corn imports and 10% to global wheat imports.
Rising costs of urea and phosphates have so far been offset by higher future crop prices but it will be more painful for corn than soybeans.
New crop price ratios for soybean to corn at the state level are down from last year, with the Dakotas down the most and Kansas with the smallest decline.
Gro’s forecast for corn intentions is 95 million acres, up 1.6 million acres from last year. This comes with a predicted decline in the western parts of the corn belt and Illinois planting the most corn. As a result, Illinois will see the largest decline in soybean acres this year. The largest decline in corn acreage will be in the eastern corn belt.
Cotton acreage is forecasted to go up, particularly in soybean states. The Mississippi Delta, Texas, and Oklahoma regions will see the greatest increase.
Spring wheat and durum wheat planting intentions are also up in all of the major wheat-growing areas.
Joy Ryder, Deken Media’s Assistant Editor, contributed to this article.
Briefly
According to Agrifutures, the Australian rice industry has created a new 5-year roadmap to target 1.5 tonnes of rice per megalitre of water by 2026. This target will be a 75% improvement in water efficiency from 2021, which is already 50% less than the global average, making Australia the most water efficient rice industry in the world. The roadmap seeks to improve water efficiency through four areas: genetic improvement, targeted farming systems, coordinated industry extension, and investments.
Australian farmers and landholders are set for a potential windfall of almost $2.6 billion from a surprise government decision that allows them to tap into surging market demand for Australian Carbon Credit Units. According the Australian Financial Review the government is hoping to satisfy calls for more carbon credits vital to reaching the nation’s 2050 net zero goal. It means owners of land-based projects who agreed to deliver around 188 million tonnes of abatement to the Commonwealth at an average price of $12 per tonne will be granted an option to sell to the open market instead. Prices for ACCUs, which are issued by the Emissions Reduction Fund to groups such as farmers who successfully lock up or sequester carbon, have spiked more than 200 per cent over the past year as investors and polluters rush to lock in emissions offsets. Under the change, once farmers and project owners pay the government the original price for fixed delivery, they can then pocket the difference earned on the voluntary market, where prices are about $47 a tonne as of last week.
Farmers can expect significant herbicide price increases in 2022 with new supply issues at Bayer, maker of glyphosate-based weed killer Roundup. According to Bloomberg, glyphosate prices were already up 25 percent from January to November 2021 before Bayer announced they’d be declaring a force majeure following a mechanical failure and production shutdown at a key supplier. The repairs could take three months, which will further restrict supply and almost certainly jack up prices further.
Deals
Grand Farm, a joint industry/government/academic ag research endeavor near Fargo, ND, received a $10 million North Dakota Department of Commerce Autonomous Agriculture Technology Matching Grant. The money will be used to accelerate research in autonomous farm equipment.
Wyvern, a Canadian startup developing hyperspectral aerial imaging technology, has received $4 million in non-dilutive funding from Canada’s Sustainable Development Technology (SDTC) program. The startup had previously raised $4.5 million.
Source.ag, a Dutch agtech startup building A.I. for greenhouses, raised $10 million in seed funding led by Acre Ventures and was joined by investors including E14 Fund and Astanor Ventures.
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